Integrated land use and transportation modelling and planning: A South African journey
Keywords:Integrated land-use and transportation modelling, Developing countries, UrbanSim, OpenTripPlanner, Urban Planning
Confronted by poverty, income disparities and mounting demands for basic services such as clean water, sanitation and health care, urban planners in developing countries like South Africa, face daunting challenges. This paper explores the role of Integrated land use and transportation modelling in metropolitan planning processes aimed at improving the spatial efficiency of urban form and ensuring that public sector investments in social and economic infrastructure contribute to economic growth and the reduction of persistent poverty and inequality. The value of such models is not in accurately predicting the future but in providing participants in the (often adversarial) planning process with a better understanding of cause and effect between different components of the urban system and in discovering common ground that could lead to compromise. This paper describes how an Urban Simulation Model was developed by adapting one of the leading microsimulation models (UrbanSim) originating from the developed world to South African conditions and how the requirements for microscopic data about the base year of a simulation were satisfied in a sparse data environment by introducing various typologies. A sample of results from three case studies in the cities of Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay between 2013 and 2017 are then presented to illustrate how modelling supports the planning process by adding elements of rational analysis and hypothesis testing to the evaluation of proposed policies.
Africa.com. (2018). Home ownership in South Africa. Retrieved from https://africa.com/home-ownership-in-south-africa/
Alonso, W. (1964). Location and land use. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Batty, M. (2005). Cities and complexity: Understanding cities with cellular automata, agent-based models and fractals. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Cervero, R. (2013). Linking urban transport and land use in developing countries. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 6(1), 7–24.
Department of Human Settlements. (2019). Delivery of serviced sites and houses/units from the HSDG since 1994 (20 years). Retrieved from http://www.dhs.gov.za/sites/default/files/documents/statistics/20 Year delivery Sites & Houses HSDG finalised ver. 29052014.pdf
Developing Countries Population. (2019). Retrieved from http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/developing-countries/
Di Zio, S., Montanari, A., & Staniscia, B. (2010). Simulation of urban development in the city of Rome. Framework, methodology, and problem solving. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 3(2), 85–105.
Felsenstein, D., Axhausen, K., & Waddell, P. (2010). Land use-transportation modeling with Urban- Sim: Experiences and progress. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 3(2), 1–3.
Felsenstein, D., Lichter, M., & Ashbel, E. (2014). Coastal congestion: Simulating port expansion and land use change under zero-sum conditions. Ocean & Coastal Management, 101, 89–101.
Geofabrik GmbH. (2018). OpenStreetMap data for South Africa. Retrieved from http://download.geofabrik.de/africa/south-africa-and-lesotho.html
Geoterra Image. (2001, 2011). Building based land use. Proprietary vector data set. Retrieved from http://www.geoterraimage.com/pdfs/101 Building Based Land Use.pdf
IHS Markit. (2012, 2016). Proprietary city-wide demographic and employment projections. Retrieved from http://www.ihsmarkit.co.za
Jin, J., & Lee, H. (2018). Understanding residential location choices: An application of the UrbanSim residential location model on Suwon, Korea. International Journal of Urban Sciences, 22(2), 216–235.
Joo, Y., Mehedy Hassan, M., & Jun, C. (2011). An application of the UrbanSim land price model in Yongsan-gu, Seoul, Korea. International Journal of Urban Sciences, 15(1), 15–24.
Knowledge Factory. (2006). Discontinued proprietary micro-marketing data set. Company profile retrieved from http://www.knowledgefactory.co.za/
Kryvobokov, M., Mercier, A., Bonnafous, A., & Bouf, D. (2015). Urban simulation with alternative road pricing scenarios. Case Studies on Transport Policy, 3, 196–205.
Lechner, T., Watson, B., Tisue, S., Wilensky, U., & Felsen, M. (2004). Procedural modeling of land use in cities (Technical report NWU-CS-04-38). Evanston, IL: Northwestern University, Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling.
McFadden, D. (1974). Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. In P. Zarembka (Ed.), Frontiers in econometrics (pp. 105–142). New York: Academic Press.
Moeckel, R. (2017). Constraints in household relocation: Modeling land-use/transport interactions that respect time and monetary budgets. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 10(2), 1–18.
National Treasury. (2015). Cities support program: Guidance note for the built environment performance plan. Retrieved from https://csp.treasury.gov.za/Projectdocuments/BEPP Guidelines2016_17.pdf
Patterson, Z., Kryvobokov, M., Marchal, F., & Bierlaire, M. (2010). Disaggregate models with aggregate data, two UrbanSim applications. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 3(2), 5–37.
Picard, N., de Palma, A., & Kiarash, M. (2015). Application of UrbanSim in Paris (Ile-de-France) case study. In M. Bierlaire, A. de Palma, R. Hurtubia & P. Waddell (Eds.), Integrated transport and land use modeling for sustainable cities (Chapter 20). Abingdon, UK, and Lausanne, Switzerland: Routledge and EPFL Press.
Rust, K. (2012, October). Opportunities in South Africa’s housing finance & delivery framework: Navigating the Gap. Paper presented at the Affordable Housing Indaba, Gauteng, South Africa.
Schirmer, P., Zöllig, C., Müller, K., Bodenmann, B., & Axhausen, K. (2011, September). The Zurich case study of UrbanSim. Paper presented at the 51st ERSA Conference, Barcelona, Spain.
Shi, J., Tong, X., Zhang, H., & Tao, D. (2013). Spatial interaction of urban residence and workplace: An UrbanSim application in Yichang, China. Beijing Daxue Xuebao (Ziran Kexue Ban)/Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 49, 1065–1074.
South African History Online. (2016). A history of Apartheid in South Africa. Retrieved from http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/history-apartheid-south-africa
Stats SA. (2013). National household travel survey. Retrieved from http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0320/P03202013.pdf
Stats SA. (2015). Measuring household expenditure on public transport. Retrieved from http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=5943
Stats SA. (2018). Victims of crime survey 2017/18. Retrieved from http://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1854&PPN=P0341&SCH=7373
Stats SA. (2019a). Census 2011 statistical release. Retrieved from https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P03014/P030142011.pdf
Stats SA. (2019b). General household survey 2018. Retrieved from http://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1854&PPN=P0318&SCH=7652
Stats SA. (2019c). Quarterly labor force survey, Quarter 2: 2019. Retrieved from http://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1854&PPN=P0211&SCH=7620
Vanegas, C., Aliaga, D., Müller, P., Waddell, P., Watson, B., & Wonka, P. (2009). Modeling the appearance and behavior of urban spaces. Computer Graphics Forum, 29(1), 25–42.
Waddell, P. (2002). UrbanSim: Modeling urban development for land use, transportation and environmental planning. Journal of the American Planning Association, 68(3), 297–314.
Waddell, P. (2011). Integrated land use and transportation planning and modeling: Addressing challenges in research and practice. Transport Reviews, 31(2), 209–229.
Waldeck, L., & van Heerden, Q. (2017). Integrated land-use and transportation modelling in developing countries: Using OpenTripPlanner to determine lowest-cost commute trips. In I.M. Schoeman
(Ed.), Transportation, land use and integration: Applications in developing countries. Southampton, UK: WIT Press.
Wegener, M. (2007). Themes and relationships. In S. Marshall & D. Banister (Eds.), Land use and transport. Oxford, UK: Elsevier.
World Bank. (2011). GINI index. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI
Ye, X., Konduri, K., Pendyala, R., Sana, B., & Waddell, P. (2009, January). A methodology to match distributions of both household and person attributes in the generation of synthetic populations. Paper presented at the 88th Annual Meetings of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC.
Ziemke, D., Nagel, K., & Moeckel, R. (2016). Towards an agent-based, integrated land-use transport modeling system. Procedia Computer Science, 83, 958–963.
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2020 Louis Waldeck, Quintin van Heerden, Jenny Holloway
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with JTLU agree to the following terms: 1) Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial License 4.0 that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal. 2) Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal. 3) Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.