An integrated land-use/transportation forecasting and planning model: A metropolitan planning support system

Ardeshir Anjomani

University of Texas at Arlington

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2246-3714

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2021.1412

Keywords: Integrated models, land use, transportation, planning support system


Abstract

Over the last several decades, land-use/transport interaction models have evolved. Although these models have the potential to become primary demographic forecasting and planning vehicles in metropolitan transportation planning for most large US urban regions, some gaps and improvements must be addressed. 

This paper briefly discusses a newly developed and refined integrated land-use/transportation model. It also introduces innovative approaches to modeling an urban area including a variant of a geographic information system-based land-use and environmental suitability analysis, as main components in deriving development potential for a small-cell grid of the study region. This approach enables the inclusion of public and stakeholder input into the modeling process, facilitates micro-level consideration of trip generation, trip distribution, and mode-choice inside the land-use demographic model, thus furthering the integration of transportation and land use in the modeling process. Such considerations and utilization of rule-based approaches and concerns of economic development and environmental and sustainability factors help close some existing gaps of operational models designed for real world practical applications. All of these features contribute toward further improvement of these models.


Author Biography

Ardeshir Anjomani, University of Texas at Arlington

Professor, Department of Planning and Landscape Architecture, College of Architecture, Planning and Public Affairs.

References

Abraham, J. E., & Hunt, J. D. (1999a). Firm location in the MEPLAN model of Sacramento. Transportation Research Record, 1685, 187–198.

Abraham, J. E., & Hunt, J. D. (1999b). Policy analysis using the Sacramento MEPLAN land-use/transportation interaction model. Transportation Research Record, 1685, 199–208.

Acheampong, R. A., & Silva, E. (2015). Land-use/transport interaction modeling: A review of the literature and future research directions. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 8(3), 11–13.

Alonso, W. (1964). Location and land use. Towards a general theory of land rent. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Anjomani, A. (1984). The overlaying map technique: Problems and suggestions. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 4, 111–119.

Anjomani, A., Shad, N., & Saberi, A. (2005). SDSS for land use and environmental planning: An application example. GIS Planet, Proceedings, Spatial Decision Support Systems, S23.

Anjomani, A., Tayebi, A., Nostikasari, D., & Kharel, G. (2010). Suitability analysis guidebook/training materials: Manual for application of suitability analysis for a selected region in Texas (5-5667-01-P3). Austin, TX: Texas Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration.

Banai, R. (2010). Evaluation of land use-transportation systems with the analytic hierarchy process. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 3(1), 85–112.

Batty, M. (1979). Progress, success and failure in urban modeling. Environment & Planning A, 11(8), 863–878.

Ben-Akiva, M. & Lerman, S.R. (1985). Discrete choice analysis. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Berechman, J., & Small K. A. (1988). Modeling land use and transportation: An interpretive review for growth areas. Environment & Planning A, 20(10), 1285–1309.

Berke, P., Godschalk, D. R., Kaiser, E. J. & Rodriquez, D. A. (2006). Urban land use planning (5th ed.). Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press.

Collins, M. G., Steiner, F. R., & Rushman, M. J. (2001). Land-use suitability analysis in the United States: Historical development and promising technological achievements. Environmental Management, 28, 611–621.

De La Barra, T. (2001) Integrated land use and transport modeling: The TRANUS experience. In R. K. Brail & R. E. Klosterman (Eds.), Planning support systems: Integrating geographic information systems, models, and visualization tools (pp. 129–156). Redlands, CA: ESRI Press.

Forester, J. F. (1999). The deliberative practitioner: Encouraging participatory planning processes. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Freilich, R., & White, S. W. (2008). 21st century land development code. Chicago: APA Planner Press.

Friedmann, J. (1973). Retracking America: A theory of transactive planning. New York: Anchor Press.

Garin, R. A. (1966) A matrix formulation of the Lowry model for intrametropolitan activity allocation. Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 32, 361–364.

Godschalk, D. R. (2007). Land use planning challenges: Coping with conflicts in visions of sustainable development and livable communities. Journal of the American Planning Association, 70(1), 5–13. doi.10.1080/01944360408976334

Hansen, W. G. (1959). How accessibility shapes land use. Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 25(2), 73–76.

Hartshorn, T. A. (1992). Interpreting the city: An urban geography (2nd ed.). New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

Haynes, K. E., & Fotheringham, A. S. (1984). Gravity and spatial interaction models. London: SAGE Publications.

Hopkins, L. D. (1977). Methods for generating land suitability maps: A comparative evaluation. Journal of American Institute of Planners, 43(4), 386–400.

Hunt, J. D., & Abraham, J. E. (2005). Design and implementation of PECAS: A generalized system for allocating economic production, exchange and consumption quantities. In M. Lee-Gosselin & S. Doherty (Eds.), Integrated land-use and transportation models: Behavioural foundations (pp. 253–273). Amsterdam: Elsevier.

Hunt, J. D., & Abraham, J. E. (2007). Theoretical formulation: System documentation technical memorandum 1 (working draft). Retrieved from http://www.hbaspecto.com/pecas/downloads/files/PECASTheoreticalFormulation.pdf. Accessed 5 August 2017.

Iacono, M., Levinson, D., & El-Geneidy, A. (2008). Models of transportation and land use change: A guide to the territory. Journal Planning Literature, 22(4), 323–340.

Innes, J. E. (1995) Planning theory’ s emerging paradigm: Communicative action. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 14(3), 183–189.

Johnston, R. A., & Shabazian, D. R. (2002). UPlan: A versatile urban growth model for transportation planning. Transportation Research Record, 2542.

Johnston, R. A., & De La Barra, T. D. (2000). Comprehensive regional modeling for long-range planning: Linking integrated urban models and geographic information systems. Transportation Research Part A, 34, 125–136.

Klosterman, R., Brooks, K., Drucker, J., Feser, E., & Renski, H. (2018). Planning support methods. Savage, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.

Klosterman, R. (1990). Community analysis and planning techniques. Savage, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.

Kockelman, K., Anjomani, A., Paul, B., Nostikasai, D., Tayyebi, A., & Kharel, G. (2011). Design and application of accessible land-use modeling tools for Texas regions (Report 5-5667- 01). Austin, TX: TxDOT, CTR, UT. Retrieved from https://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth326624/

Kockelman, K., Duthie, J., Kakaraparthi. S. K., Zhou, B., Anjomani, A., Marepally, S., & Kunapareddychinna, K. P. (2008). An examination of land-use models, emphasizing UrbanSim, TELUM, and suitability analysis (Report 0-5667-1). Austin, TX: TxDOT, CTR, UT. Retrieved from https://ctr.utexas.edu/wp-content/uploads/pubs/0_5667_1.pdf

Lindstone, H. W., & Turoff, M. (Eds.) (1977). The Delphi: Technique and application (2nd ed.). Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.

Lowry, I. S. (1964). A model of metropolis (RM-4035-RC). Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation.

Malczewski, J. (2004). GIS-based land-use suitability analysis: A critical overview. Progress in Planning, 62, 3–65.

Marsh, W. (2010). Landscape planning: Environmental applications (5th ed.). New York: John Wiley and Sons.

McDonald, J. F., & McMillen, D. P. (2011) Urban economics and real estate: Theory and policy. Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing.

McHarg, I. (1992). Design with nature (25th-anniversary ed.). New York: John Wiley and Sons.

McHarg, I. L. (1969). Design with nature. Garden City, New York: Natural History Press.

Meyer, M., & Miller, E. (2001). Urban transportation planning: A decision-oriented approach. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Meyer, M., & Miller, E. (2013). Transportation planning: A decision-oriented approach. Atlanta, GA: Modern Transport Solutions, LLC. Retrieved from online at http://mtsplan.com/services.html

Moeckel, R. (2017). Constraints in household relocation: Modeling land-use/transport interactions that respect time and monetary budgets. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 10(1), 211–228.

Putman, S. H. (1983). Integrated urban models: Policy analysis of transportation and land use. London: Pion.

Putman, S. H. (2001) The METROPILUS planning support system: Urban models and GIS. In R. K. Brail & R. E. Klosterman (Eds.), Planning support systems: Integrating geographic information systems, models and visualization tools (pp. 99-128). Redlands, CA: ESRI Press.

Rodrigue, J. P. (2020) The geography of transport systems (5th ed.). New York: Routledge.

Saaty T. L. (1980). The analytic hierarchy process. New York: McGraw Hill International.

Saaty, T. L. (1994). Highlights and critical points in the theory and application of the analytic hierarchy process. European Journal of Operational Research, 74(3), 426–447.

Sarzynski, A., Wolman, H., Galster, G., & Hanson, R. (2006). Testing the conventional wisdom about land use and traffic congestion: The more we sprawl, the less we move? Urban Studies, 43, 601–626.

Silva, E., & Wu, N. (2012). Surveying models in urban land studies. Journal of Planning Literature, 72(2), 139–152.

Taleai, M., & Mansourian, A. (2008). Delphi-AHP method to survey major factors causing urban plan implementation failure. Journal of Applied Sciences, 8(15), 2746–2751.

Timmermans, H. J. P. (2003). The saga of integrated land-use/transport modeling: How many dreams before we wake up? Paper presented at the 10th International Conference on Travel Behavior Research, Aug. 10-15, Lucerne, Switzerland.

United States Department of Transportation. (2004). Land use planning for small and medium MPOs. Retrieved from http://tmip.fhwa.dot.gov/clearinghouse/docs/general/sams/landuse/landuse.pdf

Veldkamp, A., & Lambin, E. (2001). Predicting land-use change. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment, 85(1–3), 1–6.

Waddell, P. (2002). UrbanSim: Modeling urban development for land use, transportation and environmental planning. Journal of the American Planning Association, 68(3), 297–314.

Waddell, P. (2011). Integrated land use and transportation planning and modeling: Addressing challenges in research and practice. Transport Review, 31(2), 209–229.

Waddell, P., Ulfarsson, G., Franklin, J. P., & Lobb, J. (2007). Incorporating land use in metropolitan transportation planning. Transportation Research Part A, 41(5), 382–410.

Wang, X., & Von Hofe, R. (2007). Research methods in urban and regional planning. New York: Springer.

Wegener, M. (2014). Land-use transport interaction models. In Fischer & P. Nijkamp (Eds.), Handbook of regional science. Berlin: Springer.

Wegener, M. (1994). Operational urban models: State of the art. Journal of the American Planning Association, 60 (1), 17–29.

Wilson A. G. (1970). Entropy in urban and regional modelling. London: Pion.

Wooldridge, J. M. (2013). Introductory Econometrics: A modern approach (5th ed.). Mason, OH: Southwestern College Publishing.

Zebardast, E. (2013). Constructing a social vulnerability index to earthquake hazards using a hybrid factor analysis and analytic network process (F’ANP) model. Natural Hazards, 65, 1331–1359.

Zhou, B., & Kockelman, K. M. (2008). Neighborhood impacts on land use change: A multinomial logit model of spatial relationships. The Annals of Regional Science, 42, 321–340.