A joint model of place of residence (POR) and place of work (POW): Making use of Gibbs sampling technique to overcome arbitrary assumptions in contexts of data limitation
Hengyang Zhang
Department of Civil & Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto
Jason Hawkins
Department of Civil & Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto
Khandker Nurul Habib
Department of Civil & Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2019.1624
Keywords: Location choice, mode choice, discrete choice model, Gibbs sampling, multinomial logit model, accessibility
Abstract
Place or residence (POR) and place of work (POW) are two spatial pivots defining patterns of travel behavior. These choices are considered part of long-term choice influencing short-term daily travel choices. Hence, POR-POW distributions are input into almost all daily travel demand models. However, in many cases, POW-POR is modelled in an ad-hoc way considering the gravity-based or entropy is maximizing aggregate modelling approach. Lack of data on the sequence of choices related to POR and POW is often blamed for avoiding using disaggregate choice model. Recognizing such data limitation, this paper presents an alternative methodology of modelling joint distribution of POW-POW that uses disaggregate choice models without necessarily knowing the sequence of POR and POW choices. It uses the conditional probability break downs of joint POR-POW choice probabilities as depicted in the Gibbs sampling approach. This allows capturing effects of household socioeconomic characteristics, zonal land-use characteristics, and modal accessibility factors in the POR-POW models. The model is applied for a case study in the city of Ottawa. Results reveal that the proposed methodology can replicate observed patterns of POR-POW with a high degree of accuracy.
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