Journal of Transport and Land Use

Analyzing the parcel delivery pattern in the Global South: The case of Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Leise Kelli de Oliveira

Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4756-4183

Rui Colaço

CERIS, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7574-1458

Gracielle Gonçalves Ferreira de Araújo

Federal University of Pernambuco

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4331-2760

João de Abreu e Silva

CERIS, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7893-2671

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2026.2595

Keywords: urban freight transport, e-commerce, parcel delivery, informal settlements, spatial inequality

---

Abstract

This study investigates parcel delivery patterns in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, to elucidate the influence of spatial inequalities, urban structure, socioeconomic factors, and retail diversity on delivery demand, employing spatial regression models. The results reveal that income and retail diversity positively impact parcel delivery, while food deserts drive increased reliance on e-commerce due to limited local options. In particular, the distance from the city center negatively affects delivery patterns, highlighting spatial inequities. Areas characterized by social inequalities exhibit greater delivery activity, highlighting e-commerce as a vital alternative where local services are scarce. These findings advocate for integrated urban planning policies that strategically leverage parcel delivery services to achieve more equitable access, address service gaps, and foster delivery expansion in marginalized areas.

---

References

Anderson, W. P., Chatterjee, L., & Lakshmanan, T. R. (2003). E-commerce, transportation, and economic geography. Growth and Change, 34(4), 415–432. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.0017-4815.2003.00228.x

Batty, M., Besussi, E., Maat, K., & Harts, J. J. (2004). Representing multifunctional cities: Density and diversity in space and time. Built Environment, 30(4), 324–337. https://doi.org/10.2148/benv.30.4.324.57156

Beckers, J., Cárdenas, I., & Verhetsel, A. (2018). Identifying the geography of online shopping adoption in Belgium. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 45, 33–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretconser.2018.08.006

Belo Horizonte. (2021). Vilas e favelas [Villages and slums]. Belo Horizonte. https://prefeitura.pbh.gov.br/urbel/vilas-e-favelas

Belo Horizonte. (2023). Segurança alimentar [Food safety]. Belo Horizonte. https://portalbelohorizonte.com.br/creativecity/seguranca-alimentar

Belo Horizonte. (2025). BHGEO [Dataset]. Belo Horizonte. http://bhmap.pbh.gov.br/v2/mapa/idebhgeo

CAISAN. (2018). Mapeamento dos desertos alimentares no Brasil [Mapping food deserts in Brazil]. Câmara Interministerial de Segurança Alimentar e Nutricional. https://aplicacoes.mds.gov.br/sagirmps/noticias/arquivos/files/Estudo_tecnico_mapeamento_desertos_alimentares.pdf

Calabrò, G., Le Pira, M., Giuffrida, N., Fazio, M., Inturri, G., & Ignaccolo, M. (2022). Modelling the dynamics of fragmented vs. consolidated last-mile e-commerce deliveries via an agent-based model. Transportation Research Procedia, 62, 155–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2022.02.020

Câmara Municipal de Lisboa. (2009). Recenseamento dos estabelecimentos de comércio a retalho e restauração e bebidas da cidade de lisboa [Census of retail, food and beverage establishments in the city of Lisbon]. Câmara Municipal de Lisboa.

Cao, X. J., Xu, Z., & Douma, F. (2012). The interactions between e-shopping and traditional in-store shopping: An application of structural equations model. Transportation, 39(5), 957–974. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-011-9376-3

Cárdenas, I., Beckers, J., & Vanelslander, T. (2017). E-commerce last-mile in Belgium: Developing an external cost delivery index. Research in Transportation Business & Management, 24, 123–129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2017.07.006

Cheng, C., Sakai, T., Alho, A., Cheah, L., & Ben-Akiva, M. (2021). Exploring the relationship between locational and household characteristics and e-commerce home delivery demand. Logistics, 5(2), 29. https://doi.org/10.3390/logistics5020029

Clarke, G., Thompson, C., & Birkin, M. (2015). The emerging geography of e-commerce in British retailing. Regional Studies, Regional Science, 2(1), 371–391. https://doi.org/10.1080/21681376.2015.1054420

Colaço, R., & de Abreu e Silva, J. (2022). Exploring the e-shopping geography of Lisbon: Assessing online shopping adoption for retail purchases and food deliveries using a 7-day shopping survey. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 65, 102859. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretconser.2021.102859

Colaço, R., & de Abreu e Silva, J. (2023). Interactions between online shopping, in-store shopping and weekly travel behavior: An analysis before and in the after-math of COVID-19 in Lisbon, Portugal. Transportation Research Record, 2678(12). https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981231194628

Dias, F. F., Lavieri, P. S., Sharda, S., Khoeini, S., Bhat, C. R., Pendyala, R. M., Pin-jari, A. R., Ramadurai, G., & Srinivasan, K. K. (2020). A comparison of online and in-person activity engagement: The case of shopping and eating meals. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 114, 643–656. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2020.02.023

Donthu, N., & Garcia, A. (1999). The Internet shopper. Journal of Advertising Re-search, 39, 52–58.

Farag, S., Krizek, K. J., & Dijst, M. (2006). E‐Shopping and its relationship with in‐store shopping: Empirical evidence from the Netherlands and the USA. Transport Reviews, 26(1), 43–61. https://doi.org/10.1080/01441640500158496

Farag, S., Schwanen, T., Dijst, M., & Faber, J. (2007). Shopping online and/or in-store? A structural equation model of the relationships between e-shopping and in-store shopping. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 41(2), 125–141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2006.02.003

Farag, S., Weltevreden, J., van Rietbergen, T., Dijst, M., & van Oort, F. (2006). E-Shopping in the Netherlands: Does geography matter? Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 33(1), 59–74. https://doi.org/10.1068/b31083

Gong, W., Stump, R. L., & Maddox, L. M. (2013). Factors influencing consumers’ online shopping in China. Journal of Asia Business Studies, 7(3), 214–230. https://doi.org/10.1108/JABS-02-2013-0006

Hernández, B., Jiménez, J., & José Martín, M. (2011). Age, gender and income: Do they really moderate online shopping behaviour? Online Information Review, 35(1), 113–133. https://doi.org/10.1108/14684521111113614

Honório, O. S., Pessoa, M. C., Gratão, L. H. A., Rocha, L. L., de Castro, I. R. R., Ca-nella, D. S., Horta, P. M., & Mendes, L. L. (2021). Social inequalities in the surrounding areas of food deserts and food swamps in a Brazilian metropolis. International Journal for Equity in Health, 20(1), 168. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12939-021-01501-7

IBGE. (2023a). Aglomerados subnormais [Subnormal clusters]. Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. https://www.ibge.gov.br/geociencias/organizacao-do-territorio/tipologias-do-territorio/15788-aglomerados-subnormais.html

IBGE. (2023b). Belo Horizonte. https://cidades.ibge.gov.br/brasil/mg/belo-horizonte/

LeSage, J., & Pace, R. K. (2009). Introduction to spatial econometrics. CRC Press.

Loo, B. P. Y., & Wang, B. (2018). Factors associated with home-based e-working and e-shopping in Nanjing, China. Transportation, 45(2), 365–384. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-017-9792-0

Mokhtarian, P. L. (2004). A conceptual analysis of the transportation impacts of B2C e-commerce. Transportation, 31(3), 257–284. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:PORT.0000025428.64128.d3

Mokhtarian, P. L., Ory, D. T., & Cao, X. (2009). Shopping-related attitudes: A factor and cluster analysis of Northern California shoppers. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 36(2), 204–228. https://doi.org/10.1068/b34015t

Moon, J., Choe, Y., & Song, H. (2021). Determinants of consumers’ online/offline shopping behaviours during the COVID-19 pandemic. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(4), 1593. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18041593

Oliveira, L. K., Nobrega, R. A. A., & Coelho, P. S. (2023). Exploring the transport landscape in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Latin American Transport Studies, 1, 100001. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.latran.2023.100001

Pereira, R. H. M., Herszenhut, D., Braga, C. K., Bazzo, J. P., Oliveira, J. L. A., Parga, J. P., Saraiva, M., Silva, L. P., Tomasiello, D. B., & Warwar, L. (2022). Distribuição espacial de características sociodemográficas e localização de empregos e serviços públicos das vinte maiores cidades do Brasil [Spatial distribution of sociodemographic characteristics and location of jobs and public services in the twenty largest cities in Brazil]. Ipea - Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada. http://dx.doi.org/10.38116/td2772

Pérez-Amaral, T., Valarezo, A., López, R., Garín-Muñoz, T., & Herguera, I. (2020). E-commerce by individuals in Spain using panel data 2008–2016. Telecommunications Policy, 44(4), 101888. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2019.101888

Reiffer, A. S., Kübler, J., Kagerbauer, M., & Vortisch, P. (2023). Agent-based model of last-mile parcel deliveries and travel demand incorporating online shopping behavior. Research in Transportation Economics, 102, 101368. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2023.101368

Shaw, H. J. (2006). Food deserts: Towards the development of a classification. Geografiska Annaler: Series B, Human Geography, 88(2), 231–247. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0435-3684.2006.00217.x

Shin, N., Lim, H., & Kim, Y. J. (2023). Modeling spatial dimensions of parcel delivery demand and its determinants. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, 9, 1002–1018. https://doi.org/10.1080/13675567.2023.2213641

Simpson, E. H. (1949). Measurement of diversity. Nature, 163(4148), 688–688. https://doi.org/10.1038/163688a0

Sousa, L. T. M., Oliveira, I. K., Oliveira, L. K., Santos Junior, J. L., & Bertoncini, B. V. (2023). Spatial relationship between sociodemographic and retail and e-commerce deliveries: The case of Belo Horizonte (Brazil). Transportes, 31(2), e2820. https://doi.org/10.58922/transportes.v31i2.2820

Sousa, L. T. M., Oliveira, L. K., Santos Junior, J. L., Bertoncini, B. V., Isler, C. A., & Larranaga, A. M. (2023). Influence of neighborhood characteristics on e-commerce deliveries: The case of Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Research in Transportation Economics, 100, 101329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2023.101329

van Wee, B., & Witlox, F. (2021). COVID-19 and its long-term effects on activity participation and travel behaviour: A multiperspective view. Journal of Transport Geography, 95, 103144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2021.103144

Ver Ploeg, M., Breneman, V., Farrigan, T., Hamrick, K., Hopkins, D., Lin, B.-H., Nord, M., Smith, T. A., Williams, R., Kinnison, K., Olander, C., Singh, A., & Tuckermanty, E. (2009). Access to affordable and nutritious food—measuring and understanding food deserts and their consequences: Report to Congress. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details?pubid=42729

Weltevreden, J. W. J. (2008). B2C e‐commerce logistics: The rise of collection‐and‐delivery points in The Netherlands. International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management, 36(8), 638–660. https://doi.org/10.1108/09590550810883487

Zhen, F., Du, X., Cao, J., & Mokhtarian, P. L. (2018). The association between spatial attributes and e-shopping in the shopping process for search goods and experience goods: Evidence from Nanjing. Journal of Transport Geography, 66, 291–299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2017.11.007