Journal of Transport and Land Use

Friction of distance, violent crime and murder rate

Reginald Arkell

AICP

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1936-8572

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2026.2816

Keywords: freeway lane kilometers, murder rate, suburbanization, vehicle kilometers traveled, violent crime, weighted population density

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Abstract

"Friction of distance" in human geography holds that increasing separation between locations within the built environment imposes costs in the form of money, time, effort, and negative externalities such as stress and crime. This study considered the ability of land use and roadway travel characteristics together as a viable way to estimate the known relationship of distance in terms of suburbanization with violent crime measured by murder rates in primary cities for 147 of the largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Methodologies consisted of multivariable cross-sectional ordinary least squares (OLS) linear and quantile regression. Development of multiple models revealed that MSA-weighted population density consistently held statistically significant inverse relationships with primary city murder rates; elasticities ranged from -0.18 to -0.31 at the mean. The proportion of residents near city centers also had similar associations at smaller elasticities. Respective measures of urban area freeway lane kilometers per 100,000 primary city population and urban area per capita vehicle kilometers traveled each as sole suburbanization independent variables had elasticities of 0.12 and 0.40 without substantively compromising model strength. Average annual hours of delay per auto commuter and number of vehicles per primary city square kilometers had similar elasticities while increasing prognostic accuracy of certain models. Statistical significance of the suburbanization independent variables was as high as eight out of nine quantiles. Extenuating support is given to theories of urbanism, metropolitan expansion, spatial mismatch, and social disorganization as friction of distance exacerbates detrimental inner-city conditions known to facilitate violent crime.

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