Journal of Transport and Land Use

The impact of urban parks on staying-based activities in transit-oriented development: Causal evidence from large-scale mobile phone data

Xueqing Bo

Kochi University of Technology

Shintaro Terabe

Tokyo University of Science

Hiroaki Nishiuchi

Kochi University of Technology

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2026.2890

Keywords: Staying-based activities, Transit-oriented development, Neighborhood park, Vitality

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Abstract

The integration of transit-oriented development (TOD) and green urbanism has been increasingly recognized as a sustainable policy for the future development of cities. Although green amenities such as urban parks play a crucial role in promoting walkability and enhancing urban vitality, the causal impacts within TOD are unclear. In particular, it remains to be seen whether the observed increases in urban vitality are directly attributable to parks or are instead driven by other factors such as population density and land use. To elucidate this point, this study investigates the causal effects of neighborhood parks on visiting populations around railway stations in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Using mobile phone location data to capture staying-based activities, we first apply the propensity score matching method to estimate the impact of neighborhood parks on staying-based activity around stations and then employ a causal forests model to clarify how different locational characteristics influence park effectiveness. Our results show that neighborhood parks significantly increase visiting populations, with stronger effects on weekends than on weekdays. Furthermore, the positive impacts are more pronounced in areas with high densities of commercial facilities and greater transport accessibility. These findings provide empirical evidence on the role of urban parks in enhancing vibrant environments, offering policy-relevant insights for integrated land use and transportation planning, particularly in TOD.

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