Accounting for uncertainty and variation in accessibility metrics for public transport sketch planning
Matthew Wigginton Conway
Conveyal (current affiliation: School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University)
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1210-2982
Andrew Byrd
Conveyal
Michael van Eggermond
Future Cities Laboratory, Singapore-ETH Centre
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2018.1074
Keywords: accessibility, public transport, scenario planning, probabilistic scenario comparison
Abstract
Accessibility is increasingly used as a metric when evaluating changes to public transport systems. Transit travel times contain variation depending on when one departs relative to when a transit vehicle arrives, and how well transfers are coordinated given a particular timetable. In addition, there is necessarily uncertainty in the value of the accessibility metric during sketch planning processes, due to scenarios which are underspecified because detailed schedule information is not yet available. This article presents a method to extend the concept of "reliable" accessibility to transit to address the first issue, and create confidence intervals and hypothesis tests to address the second.Author Biography
Matthew Wigginton Conway, Conveyal (current affiliation: School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University)
I'm a Project Manager for Analysis at Conveyal, where I develop software and work with cities on accessibility planning for their public transit systems.References
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