Access-based land value appreciation for assessing project benefits
Yadi Wang
University of Sydney and Stantec
David Levinson
University of Sydney
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2023.2297
Keywords: Land use, Land value capture, Project evaluation, Accessibility
Abstract
The traditional mobility-oriented travel-time saving benefit assessment method has been repeatedly questioned for numerous intrinsic flaws, motivating the search for alternative benefit assessment approaches. Although a wealth of literature confirms the capitalization effect of access benefits induced by transport improvements to land or real estate value, the access-based land value uplift method hasn’t yet been widely recognized and employed as an official tool assisting transport decision-making. The present paper collects 136 empirical studies and aims to disentangle the obstacles hindering the promotion of the access-based assessment method by systematically reviewing methodological design, the access metrics used, and the target real estate sub-markets or land use types upon which access benefits are quantified. First, it was found that almost half of the sampled studies just investigated the general effects of transport operation on real estate prices without incorporating sufficient temporal and locational considerations, thereby failing to isolate project-specific incremental impacts. Second, while the hedonic pricing model remains the most popular model, a trend towards embracing more advanced modelling techniques such as spatial lag, spatial error, and Difference-in-Differences (DID) models to control for bias caused by spatial dependence has been observed. Third, Euclidean distance and distance buffer rings are the most widely used operational measures of access. Primal access measures covering the number of opportunities available at a destination and travel impedance are recommended. Last, over 86% of sampled empirical studies target the residential real estate market. The lack of non-residential land uses in the literature presents a significant research gap that should be addressed.
Author Biographies
Yadi Wang, University of Sydney and Stantec
School of Civil Engineering,
David Levinson, University of Sydney
Professor, School of Civil Engineering
References
Ackerman, F. and Heinzerling, L. (2002), Pricing the priceless: Cost-benefit analysis of environmental protection, University of Pennsylvania Law Review 150(5), 1553–1584.
Agostini, C. A. and Palmucci, G. A. (2008), The anticipated capitalisation effect of a new metro line on housing prices, Fiscal Studies 29(2), 233–256.
Alonso, W. (1964), Location and land use: Toward a general theory of land rent., Publi-cations of the Joint Center for Urban Studies of the Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology and Harvard University, Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
Andrić, J., Mahamadu, A.-M., Wang, J., Zou, P. and Zhong, R. (2019), The cost perfor-mance and causes of overruns in infrastructure development projects in Asia, Jour-nal of Civil Engineering and Management 25, 203–214.
Bain, R. and Polakovic, L. (2005), Traffic forecasting risk study update 2005: Through ramp-up and beyond, Proceedings of ETC 2005, Transport Policy and Operations - Road Finance Design and Maintenance Traffic and Revenue Forecasting. https://trid.trb.org/view/846461
Batt, H. W. (2001), Value capture as a policy tool in transportation economics: An explo- ration in public finance in the tradition of Henry George,’ American Journal of Economics and Sociology 60(1), 195–228,
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1536-7150.00061
Black, A. (1995), Urban mass transportation planning.
Brantingham, P. J., Brantingham, P. J. and Wong, P. S. (1991), ‘How public transit feeds private crime: notes on the 'Vancouver Skytrain’ experience, Security Journal 2(2), 91–95.
Brigham, E. F. (1965), The determinants of residential land values, Land Economics
(4), 325–334.
Cantarelli, C., van Wee, B., Molin, E. and Flyvbjerg, B. (2012), Different cost perfor-mance: different determinants?: The case of cost overruns in Dutch transport infra-structure projects, Transport Policy 22, 88–95.
Ceder, A. (2007), Public transit planning and operation: Theory, modelling and practice, CRC Press.
Cheshire, P. and Sheppard, S. (1989), British planning policy and access to housing: some empirical estimates, Urban Studies 26(5), 469–485.
Committee of the Transport Access Manual (2020), Transport Access Manual: A Guide for Measuring Connection between People and Places, Committee of the Transport Access Manual, University of Sydney.
Cruz, C. O. and Sarmento, J. M. (2019), Traffic forecast inaccuracy in transportation: A literature review of roads and railways projects, Transportation (Dordrecht) 47(4), 1571– 1606.
Curtis, C. and Scheurer, J. (2016), Planning for public transport accessibility: An interna-tional sourcebook, Routledge.
Damm, D., Lerman, S. R., Lerner-Lam, E. and Young, J. (1980), Response of urban real estate values in anticipation of the Washington metro, Journal of Transport Eco-nomics and Policy pp. 315–336.
Daniels, C. B. (1975), The influence of racial segregation on housing prices, Journal of Urban Economics 2(2), 105–122.
Debrezion, G., Pels, E. and Rietveld, P. (2007), The impact of railway stations on resi-dential and commercial property value: A meta-analysis, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 35(2), 161–180.
Dehejia, R. H. and Wahba, S. (2002), Propensity score-matching methods for nonexper-imental causal studies, Review of Economics and Statistics 84(1), 151–161.
Dewees, D. (1976), The effect of a subway on residential property values in Toronto, Journal of Urban Economics 3(4), 357–369.
Du, H. and Mulley, C. (2007), The short-term land value impacts of urban rail transit: Quantitative evidence from Sunderland, UK, Land Use Policy 24(1), 223–233.
Du, H. and Mulley, C. (2012), Understanding spatial variations in the impact of accessi-bility on land value using geographically weighted regression, Journal of Transport and Land Use 5(2), 46–59.
Dubé, J., Thériault, M. and Des Rosiers, F. (2013), Commuter rail accessibility and house values: The case of the Montreal south shore, Canada, 1992–2009, Transportation re-search. Part A, Policy and Practice 54, 49–66.
Farrell, S. (1999), Financing European transport infrastructure: policies and practice in Western Europe, Springer.
Filippova, O. and Sheng, M. (2020), Impact of bus rapid transit on residential property prices in Auckland, New Zealand, Journal of Transport Geography 86, 102780.
Florio, M. and Vignetti, S. (2013), The use of ex post cost-benefit analysis to assess the long-term effects of major infrastructure projects, Working Paper 2723381, Centre for Industrial Studies.
Flyvbjerg, B. (2003), Megaprojects and risk: An anatomy of ambition, Cambridge Uni-versity Press, Cambridge.
Flyvbjerg, B. (2007), Cost overruns and demand shortfalls in urban rail and other infra-structure, Transportation Planning and Technology 30(1), 9–30.
Flyvbjerg, B., Holm, M. K. S. and Buhl, S. L. (2003), How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects?, Transport Reviews 23(1), 71–88.
Flyvbjerg, B., Holm, M. K. S. and Buhl, S. L. (2004), What causes cost overrun in transport infrastructure projects?, Transport Reviews 24(1), 3–18.
Flyvbjerg, B., Holm, M. K. S. and Buhl, S. L. (2005), How (in)accurate are demand fore-casts in public works projects?: The case of transportation, Journal of the American Planning Association 71(2), 131–146.
Geurs, K. T., Dentinho, T. P. and Patuelli, R. (2016), Accessibility, equity and efficiency, in
Accessibility, Equity and Efficiency, Edward Elgar Publishing.
Goodman, A. C. (1978), Hedonic prices, price indices and housing markets, Journal of Urban Economics 5(4), 471–484.
Han, L. and Strange, W. C. (2016), What is the role of the asking price for a house?, Journal of Urban Economics 93, 115–130.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119016300018
Hansen, W. G. (1959), How accessibility shapes land use, Journal of the American Insti-tute of Planners 25(2), 73–76.
Hartgen, D. T. (2013), Hubris or humility? Accuracy issues for the next 50 years of travel demand modeling, Transportation (Dordrecht) 40(6), 1133–1157.
Heikkila, E., Gordon, P., Kim, J. I., Peiser, R. B., Richardson, H. W. and Dale-Johnson, D. (1989), What happened to the EBD-distance gradient? Land values in a policen-tric city, Environment and Planning A 21(2), 221–232.
Henneberry, J. (1998), Transport investment and house prices, Journal of Property Valu-ation and Investment .
Hess, D. B. and Almeida, T. M. (2007), Impact of proximity to light rail rapid transit on station-area property values in Buffalo, New York, Urban Studies (Edinburgh, Scot-land) 44(5/6), 1041–1068.
Hiironen, J., Riekkinen, K. and Tuominen, H. (2015), The impact of a new subway line on property values in Helsinki metropolitan area, in FIG Working Week, pp. 17–21.
Hoque, J. M., Erhardt, G. D., Schmitt, D., Chen, M., Chaudhary, A., Wachs, M. and Soul-eyrette, R. R. (2021), The changing accuracy of traffic forecasts, Transportation (Dordrecht) pp. 1–22.
Horner, M. W. (2004), Spatial dimensions of urban commuting: A review of major issues and their implications for future geographic research, The Professional Geographer 56(2), 160–173.
Huo, T., Ren, H., Cai, W., Shen, G., Liu, B., Zhu, M. and Wu, H. (2018), Measurement and dependence analysis of cost overruns in megatransport infrastructure projects: Case study in Hong Kong, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 144.
Istrate, E. and Levinson, D. M. (2011), Access for value: Financing transportation through land value capture, Technical report, Brookings Institution Metropolitan In-frastructure Initiative.
Jara-Diaz, S. R. (1990), Consumer’s surplus and the value of travel time savings,’ Trans-portation Research Part B: Methodological 24(1), 73–77.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/019126159090033U
Kelly, C., Laird, J., Costantini, S., Richards, P., Carbajo, J. and Nellthorp, J. (2015), Ex post appraisal: What lessons can be learnt from EU cohesion funded transport pro-jects?, Transport Policy 37, 83–91.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X14002108
Laird, J. J., Nellthorp, J. and Mackie, P. J. (2005), Network effects and total economic impact in transport appraisal, Transport Policy 12(6), 537–544.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X05000909
Lancaster, K. J. (1966), A new approach to consumer theory, Journal of political econ-omy 74(2), 132–157.
Lee, J.-K. (2008), Cost overrun and cause in Korean social overhead capital projects: Roads, rails, airports, and ports, Journal of Urban Planning and Development 134(2), 59– 62.
Lee Jr, D. (2000), Methods for evaluation of transportation projects in the USA, Transport policy 7(1), 41–50.
Levine, J., Grengs, J. and Merlin, L. A. (2019), From Mobility to Accessibility: Transform-ing Urban Transportation and Land-Use Planning, Cornell University Press, Ithaca.
Levinson, D. and El-Geneidy, A. (2009), The minimum circuity frontier and the journey to work, Regional Science and Urban Economics 39(6), 732–738.
Levinson, D. and Wu, H. (2020), Towards a general theory of access, Journal of Transport and Land Use 13(1), 129–158.
Li, Z. and Hensher, D. A. (2010a), Toll roads in Australia: An overview of characteristics and accuracy of demand forecasts, Transport Reviews 30(5), 541–569.
https://doi.org/10.1080/01441640903211173
Li, Z. and Hensher, D. A. (2010b), Toll roads in Australia: An overview of characteristics and accuracy of demand forecasts, Transport Reviews 30(5), 541–569.
Lim, H., Kim, J., Potter, C. and Bae, W. (2013), Urban regeneration and gentrification: Land use impacts of the Cheonggye stream restoration project on the Seouls Central Business District, Habitat International 39, 192–200.
Lin, J.-J. and Hwang, C.-H. (2004), Analysis of property prices before and after the open-ing of the Taipei subway system, The Annals of Regional Science 38, 687–704.
Lin, J.-J. and Yang, S.-H. (2019), Proximity to metro stations and commercial gentrifica-tion, Transport Policy 77, 79–89.
Linneman, P. (1980), Some empirical results on the nature of the hedonic price function for the urban housing market, Journal of Urban Economics 8(1), 47–68.
Liu, Z., Li, Y. and Ming, Z. (2022), Transit network effects and multilevel access premi-ums: Evidence from the housing market of Shanghai, China, Cities 129, 103841.
Love, P. E., Ahiaga-Dagbui, D. D. and Irani, Z. (2016), Cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects: Sowing the seeds for a probabilistic theory of causation, Transportation Research Part A, Policy and Practice 92, 184–194.
Lundberg, M., Jenpanitsub, A. and Pyddoke, R. (2011), Cost overruns in Swedish transport projects, Working Paper 5694, Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm.
Mackie, P. and Preston, J. (1998), Twenty-one sources of error and bias in transport pro-ject appraisal, Transport Policy 5(1), 1–7.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X98000043
Mackinder, I. and Evans, S. (1981), Predictive accuracy of British transport studies in urban areas, Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
Marleau Donais, F., Abi-Zeid, I., Waygood, E. O. D. and Lavoie, R. (2019), A review of cost–benefit analysis and multicriteria decision analysis from the perspective of sus-tainable transport in project evaluation, EURO Journal on Decision Processes 7(3-4), 327–358.
Mathur, S. (2014), Innovation in Public Transport Finance Property Value Capture, Transport and Mobility, Ashgate Publishing Ltd, Farnham.
Mathur, S. (2019), An evaluative framework for examining the use of land value capture to fund public transportation projects, Land Use Policy 86, 357–364.
Medda, F. (2012), Land value capture finance for transport accessibility: A review, Jour-nal of Transport Geography 25, 154–161.
Mills, E. S. (1967), An aggregative model of resource allocation in a metropolitan area,
The American Economic Review 57(2), 197–210.
Mogush, P., Krizek, K. J. and Levinson, D. (2016), The value of bicycle trail access in home purchases, in Accessibility, Equity and Efficiency, Edward Elgar Publishing, pp. 193– 209.
Mohammad, S. I., Graham, D. J., Melo, P. C. and Anderson, R. J. (2013), A meta-analysis of the impact of rail projects on land and property values, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 50, 158–170.
Mohring, H. (1961), Land values and the measurement of highway benefits, The Journal of Political Economy 69(3), 236–249.
Mohring, H. (1993), Maximizing, measuring, and not double counting transportation im-provement benefits: A primer on closed- and open-economy cost-benefit analysis, Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 27(6), 413–424.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0191261593900142
Muth, R. F. (1969), Cities and housing; the spatial pattern of urban residential land use.. Nicolaisen, M. S. and Driscoll, P. A. (2014), Ex-post evaluations of demand forecast accuracy: A literature review, Transport Reviews 34(4), 540–557.
Odeck, J. (2004), Cost overruns in road construction—what are their sizes and determi-nants?, Transport Policy 11(1), 43 – 53.
Page, W. H. and Lopatka, J. E. (1999), Network externalities, Encyclopedia of Law and Economics 760, 952–980.
Park, Y.-I. and Papadopoulou, T. (2012), Causes of cost overruns in transport infrastruc-ture projects in Asia, Built Environment Project and Asset Management 2, 195–216.
Parthasarathi, P. and Levinson, D. (2010), Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy, Transport Policy 17(6), 428–443.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X10000594
Pickrell, D. (1989), Urban rail transit projects: Forecast versus actual ridership and costs. final report, Technical report, Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, MA (USA).
Páez, A., Scott, D. M. and Morency, C. (2012), Measuring accessibility: positive and nor-mative implementations of various accessibility indicators, Journal of Transport Geography 25, 141–153.
Rosen, S. (1974), Hedonic prices and implicit markets: Product differentiation in pure competition, Journal of Political Economy 82(1), 34–55.
Salon, D., Wu, J. and Shewmake, S. (2014), Impact of bus rapid transit and metro rail on property values in Guangzhou, China, Transportation Research Record 2452(1), 36–45.
Sebastian, M. (2005), Cost and time overruns in public sector projects, Economic and Political Weekly pp. 154–168.
Sheppard, S. (1999), Chapter 41 hedonic analysis of housing markets, in Applied Urban Economics, Vol. 3 of Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier, pp. 1595–1635. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1574008099800108
Sims, S. and Dent, P. (2005), High-voltage overhead power lines and property values: a residential study in the UK, Urban Studies 42(4), 665–694.
Smith, J. J. and Gihring, T. A. (2006), Financing transit systems through value capture: An annotated bibliography, American Journal of Economics and Sociology 65(3), 751–786.
Sun, H., Wang, Y. and Li, Q. (2016), The impact of subway lines on residential property values in tianjin: An empirical study based on hedonic pricing model, Discrete Dy-namics in Nature and Society 2016, 1–10.
Ubbels, B., Nijkamp, P., Verhoef, E., Potter, S. and Enoch, M. (2001), Alternative ways of funding public transport: A case study assessment, European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research 1(1), 73–89.
Voulgaris, C. T. (2019a), Crystal balls and black boxes: What makes a good forecast?,
Journal of Planning Literature 34(3), 286–299.
https://doi.org/10.1177/0885412219838495
Voulgaris, C. T. (2019b), Trust in forecasts? correlates with ridership forecast accuracy for fixed-guideway transit projects, Transportation (Dordrecht) 47(5), 2439–2477.
Wang, Y., Feng, S., Deng, Z. and Cheng, S. (2016), Transit premium and rent segmenta-tion: A spatial quantile hedonic analysis of shanghai metro,’ Transport Policy 51, 61–69.
Wegener, M. (2004), Overview of land-use transport models, in D. A. Hensher and K. B. (Eds.), eds, Handbook of transport geography and spatial systems, Handbooks in Transport; 5, Elsevier, Amsterdam, Chapter 9, pp. 266–290.
Welde, M. and Odeck, J. (2011), Do planners get it right? The accuracy of travel de-mand forecasting in Norway, European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Re-search 11, 80–95.
Wen, H., Gui, Z., Tian, C., Xiao, Y. and Fang, L. (2018), Subway Opening, Traffic Acces-sibility, and Housing Prices: A Quantile Hedonic Analysis in Hangzhou, China, Sus-tainability 10(7), 1–23.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2015), Introductory econometrics: A modern approach, Cengage learning.
Wu, H. and Levinson, D. (2020), Unifying access, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 83, 102355.
Yang, L., Chau, K., Szeto, W., Cui, X. and Wang, X. (2020), Accessibility to transit, by transit, and property prices: Spatially varying relationships, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 85, 102387.
Zahavi, Y. and Talvitie, A. (1980), Regularities in travel time and money expenditures,
Transport Research Record (750), 13–19.
Zhang, M. and Wang, L. (2013), The impacts of mass transit on land development in China: The case of Beijing, Research in Transportation Economics 40(1), 124–133.
Zhao, Z., Iacono, M., Lari, A. and Levinson, D. (2012), Value capture for transportation finance,’ Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48, 435–448. Transport Research Arena 2012.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877042812027590